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Real Estate Situation

The weaken property share prices lead to the adjustment of property market

 

Damon Ho

13th April 2024

One month after the withdrawal of the cooling measures, the rebound of the transaction volume of first-hand properties was quite substantial, and the price per square foot did not rise but fell. In terms of the stock market, the stock price of real estate stocks had increased for only two weeks after the withdrawal, and then it began to fall again. If the stock market is the forerunner, the property market will follow its footsteps stocks in the next two months. Therefore, the property market is in danger of falling again.

After the withdrawal of the cooling measures at the end of February, real estate agents took the lead in forecasting that the property market will rebound soon. Midland property is the only listed real estate agency stock in Hong Kong, and its share price rose from $0.6 to $1.2 within two weeks after the withdrawal, but since then it has slowly fallen to 0.86 per share so far, and the price fluctuation is obvious. The smart money in the market does not seem to believe that the withdrawal of cooling measures will alter the nature of the property market. At the beginning of 2019, Midland's share price was close to HKD 2, and the current share price was HKD 0.86, which meant that it had dropped 57%.

Furthermore, Cheung Kong's the new flat of “Blue Coast” Phase 1 and Phase 2 almost sold out, and the selling price was under market value. Its share price rebounded sharply and then fell again, and its share price rose from $35 to $38.5 within the first two weeks of March, and then fell to the current price of $31.85. This sharp drop indicated that the investors were deeply concerned about the weakening property market.

In addition to agency and real estate stocks, Link Real Estate Investment trust as a REITs, its share price performance was even poorer. Since March, its share price has been declining 17% from $39 to $32.2 at present. The share price of real estate-related stocks being reduced after the removal of cooling measures is clear. Reviewing of the property stocks’ performance, the property market will complete this short-term rebound in about two months. Then, the transaction volume will decrease significantly, and there is a great chance that property prices will drop further at the bottom.

 
 
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