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1. 汤文亮 2011-09-22 11:12:46
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各位早晨， 昨日，国雄兄登入网站，发表了他个人意见，我深表欢迎，但我发觉这个国雄兄可能是伪冒，他的姓是粱不是梁，所以我们对他发表的言论不必太认真对待。 明天，我将会发表一个汇丰加息背后的故事，虽然是假设，不过亦有一定程度可信性，大家请赐教。
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2. 仲达 2011-09-22 11:19:38
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多谢汤博士赐教，相信大部份人也不知H按与P按在本质上的分别，只知一两年前H按利息低很多，封顶亦与P按利息相约，十分着数，故以H按叙造按揭。 奉劝各测量师不要轻信外国权威的调查报告，大幅调低物业估值，即使为了反映外围经济因素，也应慢慢调低估值，否则祸及苍生，遍地负资产和银主盘，作孽也。 一言敝之：H按P按要认清，预留资金防冲击。
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3. 王先生 2011-09-22 11:26:49
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在 2年多前我同层楼转按，做 H+0.7%，银行不单止无讲到补差价风险，
重话我只借 2成咁少，他们可借多啲俾我，等我买啲定息产品或公用股，
咁就可以做到唔使钱供楼，好彩老婆极力反对，否则呢轮唔止输咁少！
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4. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 11:28:45
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汤博士说得十分详细, 顺便补充几点: 1) H按大多附有P减2-3%的锁息, 实质上等於银行送了一个interest rate cap给按揭人.但外间未必知道, 银行对於这个cap是做对冲的(不然HIBOR急升而P未调整的话, 银行会输钱)...是故H按縦然息与P按相距不远, 但成本却更高. 2) 按揭合约里, 不管利率基准是P或H, 即使还款正常, 银行是有单边及绝对的权力(unilateral and absolute discretion)中止合约. 当然这种情况在个人业务方面发生机会甚低, 但工商金融业务却时有发生
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5. 朱玄子 2011-09-22 11:28:59
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汤博士,你好, 好多谢汤博士解释两者之分别,本人亦有经验在申请按揭时, 银行职员解释只是H很浮动, 每月都会有不同按揭息率, 而P比较稳定,如加息, 只会在延长供款年期
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6. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 11:34:21
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外汇市场方面, 近日美元兑亚洲货币(日元除外)显著转强, 港元亦跟随.... 相信不少资金正从区内流走, 股市投资者要小心了
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7. 契弟走得摩 2011-09-22 11:34:49
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8. DT 2011-09-22 11:36:49
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林行止 also commented here yesterday. Is 林行止 really 林行止? Does anyone know please?
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9. 代言人 2011-09-22 11:42:17
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10. IRM 2011-09-22 11:53:36
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Dr Tong, thank you for your article. I did not know the fundamental difference % H and P plan indeed. Today the stock market drops markedly. Can you comment on it? How will it affect the property market? Thank you
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11. 向泛民say yes 2011-09-22 12:17:40
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非常多谢汤博士这篇文章，教晓我这方面的道利，虽然本人的物业按揭一直采用P按。
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12. MARCO 2011-09-22 12:25:33
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大家快D卖股换二手楼..股市保守估计17000点指日可待, 鬼佬走资不绝, 国内又银根紧张,短期内股民自求多福, 输少当赢, 留得青山在, 哪怕无柴烧..
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13. 汤文亮 2011-09-22 12:27:50
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To: 80后银行从业员 多谢您的补充，从大家的回应，我将会写多一些关於银行按揭，或怎样向银行申请按揭的文章，若有不对之处，请指正。多谢。
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14. quando quando quando 2011-09-22 14:26:18
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When will HSBC be 80... tell me quando quando quando...
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15. 铃木刚一 2011-09-22 14:35:25
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路透社调查显示，15家初级交易商的预估中值显示，联储局在未来6个月推出QE3机会率32%，较本月同类型调查45%的比率为低。13位初级市场交易商的预估中值显示，联储局新措施振经济的机率为15%。8位受访者称，联储局至少2014年才会加息，甚或更晚。 美国不加利息，楼市仍然非常安全。
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16. haha 2011-09-22 14:39:32
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准备用1%资金汇丰$60扫10球，$55再扫10球，直至用尽10%资金为止
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17. Nina Kung 2011-09-22 14:52:31
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1. Hong Kong Property Prices Are Really Very Expensive Whether you agree the methodology or not, there is very little doubt that Hong Kong home prices are among the most expensive on earth. This is the prerequisite to call anything a “bubble”, and the property market in Hong Kong certainly meets this criteria. Even though properties look very affordable, they are so only because of ultra-low interest rate (see Point 5 below). Of course, being expensive by itself does not mean that prices are going to drop. The key is that fundamentals are not as strong as people think: Hong Kong is no longer a fast-growing economy, and population growth is very slow. Worse still, like many other parts of the world, the population is ageing, and that is going to be negative for real estate market (see Point 3 below). 2. Illusion of Supply Shortage The most frequently cited reason for high home prices are the supply shortfall, though I have debunked this myth: Hong Kong private residential market has about 210,000 excess flats relative to the true demand, which should well be able to buffer any alleged supply shortfall for 2-3 years. In fact, should the property market correct, the same group of people who are arguing for the shortage of supply (e.g. pundits, politicians, and some analysts) will probably argue that there are too many flats around. 3. Demographic trend is working against the market Demographics have a weird relationship with asset prices (see here for more depressive note). Real Estate markets all over the world will face demographic headwinds, and there is no different for China and Hong Kong. Similar to China, the ratio of working-age population to total population in Hong Kong peaked in 2010, and population ageing will happen at an even faster rate than China. By 2050, the population aged between 15-59 will account for less than half of total population, down from about 70% in 2010 according to UN Population Division’s forecast. Property Market Volatility aside, Hong Kong real estate market will face a strong demographic headwind (like China), which means that the long-term trend is more likely to go downward. 4. Economic Uncertainties Increase Back in those days when the subprime crisis emerged, many people thought it was just a blip. Now, many people think that the Japan’s earthquake is only going to be a blip. Even the significance of Japan in the global economic landscape has diminished over the past 2 decades, Japan is still the third largest economy in the world with all sorts of intricate links within the global economic system. Japan, for instance, is a major trading partner of China and many others, and is a major part of the global supply chain in technological products. Japan is also a large investors in other countries. There has been reports that Japanese brokerage houses Nomura and Daiwa Capital Markets were among the brokers who sold off most stocks in Hong Kong since the start of this week. While it is unclear whether that was related to Japanese institutional clients selling off stocks in Hong Kong to repatriate funds back to Japan, the country will have a huge need for funds in months or even years ahead, so it should not be surprised that funds are flowing back to Japan (Read also: how Japanese funds flow caused the Asian boom and the subsequent bust in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997). Situations in the Middle East and North Africa is also far from clear. The breaking news is that UN Security Council has just approved the use of a no-fly zone in Libya, and military intervention might be on the way. That creates even more uncertainties. Our neighbour, China, is fighting with inflation and tightening policy. Tightening will inevitably slow down the economy, and that will be negative for Hong Kong real estate. In the time of crises and uncertainties, money flights to safety (e.g. US Treasury). As Hong Kong property market is extremely sensitive to money flow, the increasingly clouded global economic outlook does not bode well with Hong Kong property market (see the following point). 5. Interest Rates On The Rise I have written previously that interest rates in Hong Kong do not always move with that of the United States. As long as funds are flowing away from Hong Kong, market interest rates will probably rise even the Federal Reserve was keeping interest rates low. The increasingly clouded economic outlook may trigger some funds flowing away from Hong Kong, which will decrease money supply and put upward pressure on interest rates. Banks in Hong Kong have raised mortgage interest rates marginally, not because of any interest rates hikes in the United States, but to increase net interest margin. Although not consequential by itself, this gives a signal that interest rates cannot be at record low forever. Sure, everyone knows that interest rates cannot remain low forever, but understanding this and watching this happening appears to be two different things. Bubbles are unsustainable, but they often last longer than people believe is possible, and when they end they end very very quickly. Here is a big bubble waiting to burst. But when? Tomorrow, or 6 months later? Only history can tell, but it might be unwise to go into the market now.
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18. MARCO 2011-09-22 15:03:07
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本人一直强调要买楼, 只可以买二手楼, 7-10年楼龄. 一手楼例如李氏堆填区新楼, 尺价只会越卖越低, 应该会到4000蚊/尺. 之前1,2期的业主都要小心.
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19. DT 2011-09-22 15:04:11
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What is the lesson learnt from the fall down of ESPRIT? While Ronald Van der Vis was appointed as Group CEO on Nov 1, 2009, the net profit was around HK$4.3billion in 2009-2010. Now it is only HK$79million in 2011. What is the decision making after 98% profit fell? Abandon North America and exit retail operations in three major European countries along with close 80% unprofitable stores in European and Asia-Pacific region. The Company books provision HK$2.3 billion losses from store closures. The Company started in 1960s from penny to the peak of stock at HK$125.5 on Oct 8, 2007 and now only below HK$9. What went wrong? In a report, it stated that it was very surprised that management did not recognize the seriousness of the brand problem in early 2010. What is the lesson learn for an investor? Set and execute the stop loss when the Market is against your position.
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20. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 15:45:54
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各位有留意美联储昨晚公布最新计划沽短债, 买长债以调整储局美债的年期. 虽然市场一面倒地不看好此举可以振兴经济.不过, 10年期债息今天跌幅甚巨, 5年期的美元利率掉期1.10%左右, 但10年期也只是2.05%. 但短息却上升了一点. 简单地说, 即交易员愿意以2.05%定息换取10年的3-month LIBOR浮息. 由利率市场反映出, 2013年中以后马上加息的可能十分低, 除非欧美经济短期内得到彻底解决......虽然外围是差到不行, 但对供楼人士来说未尝不是一件好事, 有楼可供为何要贱卖？？ "两岸猿声啼不住, 轻舟已过万重山"
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21. MARCO 2011-09-22 15:51:43
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"今天地产商已经不会给予炒家生存的空间，在楼盘最初推出时订价已经很高，炒家接货「摸」售，获利的机会其实很少，所以一众资深投资者兴趣都不大." 所以一手楼别去碰.. Quoted from Dr. Tong's previous article.
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22. 无奈 2011-09-22 16:00:02
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20楼：好句！，另一句是＂雄关漫道真如铁，如今迈步从头越。"顺便多谢博士。
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23. 长毛粉丝 2011-09-22 16:20:28
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今日在街上巧遇梁家杰，我质问公民党为何支持菲庸居港权，梁大律师答我，这是建制派抹黑，公民党支持菲庸有权对自己的居港权利向法庭提出要求，而不是支持她们港居的权利；梁律师说，就算杀人犯也应该有权向法庭提出申诉，不过至於有罪或有权居港与否，应由法庭判决，这就是法治。大律师果然是大律师。
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24. MARCO 2011-09-22 16:25:36
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犹记得08年海啸时雷曼爆煲, 人人未知为何事时, 股市跌到"草木皆兵",才停止, 今次经济又再爆, 愈爆愈大锅, 连国家都有机会破产..更加令人意外..似乎这一次已无人能改变. 而香港又成为国际基金提款机, 令到股市低处未算低..股市大庄家利用恐慌心理, 贱卖股票, 佢地利用衍生工具大赚特赚, 可怜香港散户, 又一次被人骑劫, 又求助无门, 政府应该保护香港人的股市稳定, 而不是打击楼市... 曾生应该施展佢98年"打大鳄" 的本事, 保障港人财产, 而不是要港人之资产缩水, 例如打击楼市. 香港依家只剩楼股二大支柱撑起, 如果失其一, 香港政府即残废, 变跛脚鸭..以后就行政更无效率...不久的将来..东方之珠会变成东方之猪, 贻笑大方.. 下任特首如没有"为香港好"的心及能力, 请别出选, 以免拖累香港这一国际大都会.
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25. 股跌楼不跌?????? 2011-09-22 16:31:57
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观乎历史, 股市大幅下跌之时, 楼价有几次可以企稳? 就算有, 次数比(机会率)如何?
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26. 林行止 2011-09-22 17:01:41
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特区政府「加推官地」，是打击物业炒风的治本之策，问题是楼价急挫对经济必有负面的连锁性冲击，因此，多卖土地的策略王道技术上亦不难执行，但如何做得恰到好处（不会产生「八万五效应」），要看有关官员的智慧。 在诸多抑压楼价的「政策建议」中，笔者以为最不可取的是限制「外人」置业。此事万万不可行，以一来这与香港坚持有年的自由市场原则背驰；二来是有太多漏洞，不易落实。 除了多卖土地，开发狮子山（飞行航綫已改）应与填海计划同时进行，而重建公居屋亦应尽快进入「议程」；不过，这些均是「远水」，要救「近火」的，当局也许可考虑对空置的非自住物业课以类同自住物业的税收，加重持有非自住物业的成本，打击有财力者囤积居奇自肥，当可收寓禁於徵之效。此举固可令政府增加税入，且有令租金楼价合理化的作用。 目前香港「百物（包括楼宇）腾贵」，除了求过於供，这些年来港元为美元陪葬滙价江河日下，亦为不可忽视元素；相对港元（和美元），人民币滙价近年升个不亦乐乎，赚取购买力日强的人民币的内地人来港采购（金银珠宝以至物业）当豪客，不足为奇。 事实上，先富起来的内地人，近年已「买起」多处「适合华人居住」地方的物业，最近且「进军」英国楼市。过去两年，人民币兑英镑升了约百分之二十五，英国楼价在内地人眼中便不算太贵；伦敦天空新闻（Sky News）报道去年伦敦售价四十万至一百万镑物业成交中，三分之一买家来自「中国和香港」，他们的目的在投资（希望获楼价及滙价升值的双重利益）及为子女留英求学备一居所，非常合理。一家物业经纪公司估计今年四、五月两个月中国人购进约值一亿二千万镑的伦敦物业。 由於中国（及香港？）「物业采购团」的吸纳，令伦敦楼宇特别是市价四十至一百万镑的，价格急扬，英国物业协会（Housing Association）因此预测「年青的伦敦人」要工作二十多年至「五十岁前后才能贮足付物业首期的资金」，这即是说，大学生要顺顺利利工作二十五年后才有财力置业（业主还是银行）。受影响的伦敦人对此自然很反感（他们唯有搬至伦敦近郊居住），然而，外资涌入，除市面兴旺外，物业经纪、建筑商（需求殷切令地产商加快发展步伐）以至家用物品商尽开颜。香港的市况亦大抵如此。
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27. DT 2011-09-22 17:05:39
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What does it mean? - Cathay Pacific's cargo loading being down by about 4 percent in past few months.
- Liquidity is flowing out of Hong Kong currently.
- Hong Kong faces the stagflation now.
- Hong Kong’s GDP was down 0.5 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months.
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28. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 17:08:00
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25楼: 股楼市是有相关性不错, 但这次的疯狂大平卖, 部份资金, 尤其是外资是要回流欧美市场, 部份走去避险买美债. 楼市乃中港资金为主, 不排除部份人要劈价卖楼补仓或者人心虚怯. 不过你没有留意08年后的教训, 美债可以随时印, 股市商品期货也可以跌到不停, 外汇即使如瑞郎也会受央行强行操纵. 如果你有钱, 你告诉我该买什么？？......今年以来不少股评家都叫人弃楼换股, 也说年底回标25000-28000. 若从其言, 相必真的要跳楼了.
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29. 中间人 2011-09-22 17:09:52
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小心熊出末!!! 利率的确在经济中上演重要的一环，但利率低迷其实也代表经济低迷，利率上扬才能代表经济有转机有合理的通帐... 所以就算美国数年都不加息，其实根本就是一件坏事，如果经济好人人赚到钱又稳定，那怕多比数厘息，相对经济差又不稳定，就算系保持H+0.7也不代表楼价会一直有，前两年只不过系一个特别例子，加上种种不同的配合。
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30. 四方城外 2011-09-22 17:11:08
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请教80后银行从业员: 我觉得被银行追差额, 要睇你借几多, 例如我去年用560万买入一物业, 借银行300万, 层楼现升至720万, 如果层楼唔好彩估值被质到唔够300万, 先至需被追差额, 请问我的理解有冇错?
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31. 70后中产 2011-09-22 17:17:10
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我前几日才懒醒话自己供紧H+0.7,所以唔放楼,睇嚟我衰左! 我响鰂鱼涌层楼又未签租约,好惊!
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32. 70后中产 2011-09-22 17:19:29
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33. 中间人 2011-09-22 17:23:40
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现在股票跌成30%+，应该仲有得跌，买楼又话要比人打压，多—层都比人话炒家，黑心或霸权，唔知买金得唔得，但怕到金价太高时，又比人话金价炒高左，有金霸, 不公平，要要求政府打压，有时想抗吓通帐都好难......
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34. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 17:26:22
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回四方城外: 首先恭喜你的物业升值不少...如果你是个人客户, 还款正常也没有其它不良信贷纪录,即使估值低於按揭余额, 银行在一般情况下不会有所谓的"追差价". 当然, 如果银行追查到一些资料, 例如: 供款人失业, 逝世, 怀疑洗钱, 按揭物业并非作自住用途等....银行才会考虑要求客户还款. "追差价" 行内称为 ("Top-Up Clause), 一般出现在工商金融类货款, 因为企业借货风险较高, 银行取得的抵押品比例也较低. 举个例子, 若银行与客户订明差价为80%, 如出现按揭低於估值80%, 则客户需将按揭减低至80%以内, 当然估值越低, 需要补的差价便越多... 所以你不必太担心.
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35. ... 2011-09-22 17:26:28
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bank still can do 95% mortgage??????? when did you borrow??? and which bank??? i want to do 80% mortgage, but afraid no bank would allow it
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36. ... 2011-09-22 17:35:20
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To: 80后银行从业员 i only have 20% downpayment for my target flat, and i have no problem for the 80% monthly mortgage payment, "assumed P-2" maybe... its around 30-40% of my salary, do you think its possible for bank to lent me 80% these days???? coz i heard its quite difficult... Thank you
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37. 经济科中学生 2011-09-22 17:55:34
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To 80后银行从业员.师兄. 为什麽买长债可以调整美债年期? 何谓利率掉期? 为什麽2.05%买10年长债会反映2013加息机会低? 师妹上.谢谢
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38. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 18:11:48
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回:... 不知道你想买的物业价钱范围是多少, 根据金管局最新指引, 在香港按揭证券有限公司(Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation, 下称"HKMC") 提供的按揭保险计划下, 银行最高可敍做90%按揭(借款上限为540万港元, 即楼价上限为600万港元). 但需要注意, 按揭保险保障了银行70%按揭以上的借贷, HKMC是要收取一笔手续费(你可以理解为保费), 可以按年交或一次过交, 该手续费视乎按揭成数高低与还款年期长短而定,一般介乎按揭的1.2% (15年还, 借70-80%) 至3.65% (30年还, 借85%-90%)不等...当然, 银行也可以考虑加借该笔手续费给你. 如果你按P-2%借80%而月供是月薪30-40%, 估计应该不难批出贷款...但毕竟我不是做按揭的, 只能建议你开票前先找几家相熟银行查询, 若没有. 最好找中资或者华资的银行吧! 应该受影响较少. http://www.hkmc.com.hk/chi/index.html
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39. 70后 2011-09-22 18:17:18
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80后银行从业员, 请教点解而家租间屋出去系扣分, 以前好似系加分㗎???
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40. 扫把头 2011-09-22 18:17:49
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大家好像没有讨论CASH IS KING. 香港现在进入STAGFLATION, 过几个月就是DEPRESSION, INFLATION也会慢慢回到1-2%, 到时候你们不一定同意买楼是唯一的保值方法. 无论如何, 你们这班大小炒家不如讨论如何说服香港首富不要劈价卖楼, 关测量师什么事!! 如果劈价, SINO和KERRY这些南洋帮又会像97一样, 被FUND佬天天唱破产. 这班FUND佬现在唱淡大陆地产股, 中国海外也被唱淡沽空, FUIND佬全部赚大钱, 因为老散全部相信大陆有刚性需求, 楼市不会滞销,楼价不会下跌. 下个月就轮到香港地产股啦, 因为香港大小炒家说香港低利息,所以楼价不会下跌, 但是就是忘记DEPRESSION会冲毁楼市.
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41. 70后 2011-09-22 18:42:02
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扫把头, 银行而家系水浸, 成日叫我借钱, 10万还4年唔洗1万息! 股市跌对楼市更加有支持作用, 资金无出路呀, 97亚洲金融风暴, 欧美楼股有无事呀, 今次灾区喺欧美, 资金肯定嚟追捧亚洲资产! 就算无嚟, 楼价睇唔到跟住大跌嘅理由, 美国越衰, 楼价越横行, 低息啊嘛! 而家香港同大陆嘅已开始转形, 香港已变成旅游之都, 对欧美嘅倚赖已经同03,08年时不同,大陆就更加一早睇到呢点, 早就鼓励内须, 抵销欧美经济爆破带嚟嘅影响, 中资银行水浸, 只系中央还未下令放水! 大陆唔会再比欧美拖住个鼻嚟行! 欧美越衰, 欧美企业越要嚟亚洲寻找商机, 只会对亚洲有利!
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42. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-22 19:10:00
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回: 经济科中学生 这应不是经济课程范围中的, 不过你有兴趣知道我随便说说吧. 1) 债券主要受4个因素影响, 票面息口, 年期, 价格同收益率. 而长年期债又比短债较受利息变动影响. 联储局宣布买入长债, 财资市场交易员会先一步购入, 於是推高长债价格, 而价格和收益率是成反比的, 所以收益率降低. (沽出短债则短债影响相反, 价格下降收益上升).於是整条收益曲綫(yield curve)变平坦了, 长息降而短息升,即是所谓的"rate twist". 由於很多美国国内按揭与长债收益率挂鈎, 所以供款人得以减轻利息支出, 对美国楼市有利好作用. 联储局持有的美国长债比例增加, 即等於duration也增加了(中文不知怎么形容, duration用作量度定息债券对利息的敏感度, 以年期为单位) 这有什么效果呢? 即是联储局预期利率还会再跌(至少不升), 长债的价格升幅才会高於短债. 因为利率如果反方向上升, 那么长债会跌得比短债多. 2) 利率掉期简单地说是两个交易对手, 一个愿意收取浮动利息/付出定息现金流, 另一个愿意付出浮动利息/收取定息现金流. 於是两者进行的一个协议. 详细操作有兴趣可以看财经书籍. 只能说2.05%的10年美元掉期是很低很低水平... 3) 这只是小弟对财资市场的分析, 不能说财资市场一定对. 而且也只是反映现时的预期...正如我之前说, 如果欧美债务问题突然解决了, 那债券收益会大幅上升, 因为不再要避险了 希望能解答一二.
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43. 向泛民说不 2011-09-22 19:29:46
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在这风雨飘摇的日子里，如果曾特首因为政治压力而推出压抑楼价的话，肯定变成千古罪人。 全世界的股票市场跌成甘，政府如果在加多脚，变成最后的稻草，曾特首肯定变成董建华的8万5的翻版，被泛民左一巴，又一巴。左一巴是地产霸权，又一巴是打击香港经济。
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44. 向泛民说不 2011-09-22 19:29:47
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在这风雨飘摇的日子里，如果曾特首因为政治压力而推出压抑楼价的话，肯定变成千古罪人。 全世界的股票市场跌成甘，政府如果在加多脚，变成最后的稻草，曾特首肯定变成董建华的8万5的翻版，被泛民左一巴，又一巴。左一巴是地产霸权，又一巴是打击香港经济。
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45. ... 2011-09-22 19:58:54
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46. 师妹 2011-09-22 20:03:08
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47. 小妇人 2011-09-22 22:18:21
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汤生,我十分喜欢您的专拦,见解独到,尤其是今天及昨天的文章.曾几何时,我和老公为P和H争论,最后维持P,看完您今天的文章,更加安心,也很佩服老公的见解.
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48. new hand 2011-09-22 22:30:55
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1) H按大多附有P减2-3%的锁息, 实质上等於银行送了一个interest rate cap给按揭人.但外间未必知道, 银行对於这个cap是做对冲的(不然HIBOR急升而P未调整的话, 银行会输钱)...是故H按縦然息与P按相距不远, 但成本却更高. Please explain more!!!!! Thank you!!!
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49. 无壳蜗牛 2011-09-22 23:07:18
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你哋班友将买楼搞到咁复杂，有屋住系基本人权，依家搞到买楼好似金融考试咁，我哋普通市民日日为两餐一宿做到成只嘢咁，边得闲嗻？！政府应该起多D楼，而且唔好俾D有钱人囤积楼，人人做业主，唔驶交租，楼系用嚟自住，唔驶理拒起跌，剩番D时间可以工作、娱乐！过番D正常人既生活，好过依家大家都要估估吓，患得患失！
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50. 小女人 2011-09-22 23:31:47
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很喜欢看这里的文章，每曰都要看你们有什么知识分享，觉得人也醒目了。
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51. 回一回 #28 2011-09-22 23:36:16
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此时此刻, 相信 Cash is king. 原因是认为数月内美元将跑嬴大部分楼股汇商品.
话虽如此, 若有其中者跌低於心目中的低残水平, 或会考虑.
明年中再看看会怎样吧.
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52. 长毛粉丝 2011-09-22 23:41:39
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今日在街上巧遇梁家杰，我质问公民党为何支持菲庸居港权，梁大律师答我，这是建制派抹黑，公民党支持菲庸有权对自己的居港权利向法庭提出要求，而不是支持她们港居的权利；梁律师说，就算杀人犯也应该有权向法庭提出申诉，不过至於有罪或有权居港与否，应由法庭判决，这就是法治。
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53. 向泛民说不 2011-09-23 00:09:58
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poor guy律师，死都说成成，黑都变成白的。 楼上真系10下10下。
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54. 王先生 2011-09-23 09:11:12
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无壳蜗牛---你就好似一啲家长，不惜以身试法报假地址，系都要将个唔够班嘅细路塞入名校！
细路追唔上啦！就则疑教育制度唔公平！！！！
因为同学有人补习，所以成绩先咁好----拒地都要补习，重要平靓正，或者齐齐唔准补习！
因为同学每年都有得游学，所以见闻广博----拒地都要去，重要坐飞机，或齐齐唔准去外国游学！！
最后同学都系两文三语醒，数学劲----咁就要取消测验、废除考试、争取人人平等、科科要教师俾 100分！！！
但呢个小学鸡可能连一个「大」字、ABC同四则运算都唔识！！
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55. 王先生 2011-09-23 09:29:46
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无壳蜗牛---你连利息与供楼关系都唔识或唔想知，咁就算市区楼卖 1球都唔关你事！
你都系买唔起！！因为嗰阵供楼利息可能 20厘，同时你连份工都无埋！！
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56. anggie T. 2011-09-23 09:35:31
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Agree with No.54 Mr. Wong, Yes, it's very true. Not every kid can afford to stay in a band one school, if he's not capable to manage the pressure & studies there, there'll be alot of comparisons that make him feel bad. Why then??? Same theory, there's a time for everything. If you're not meant for private sector in properties market, (making too little due to all kinds of reasons, maybe not your fault) spending too much in the past(this at least you can control) that makes you totally out of the natural selection of properties market. Then O.K., wait for the gov. housing then....... It's ll soon come.........
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57. anggle T. 2011-09-23 09:43:08
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To No. 49, Your wish can only happen in super-ideal world, everyone becomes landlord, then the properties will be as cheap as U.S. ......So that's what you want??? Who's gonna subsidize with all kinds of social welfare benefits in H.K. You then??? Everyone has their own place & no need to pay the rent & can work & have entertainment as per your wish bla bla bla.......Sir! Wake up, it could only happen in your dreams. You have to have some understanding of the global economy(at least H.K. economy). The world has changed & it's not soooo easy to survive anymore, if you still wanna take the easy way out.......Yes, most of my friends are enjoying their entertainment & life as per their wish, but they're paying a price plus interest in the years to come........And they still haven't got a clue!
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58. 人一个 2011-09-23 09:55:50
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to 无壳蜗牛 如果你认为政府真系要解决市民的居住需求, 我都同意, 但我支持大量起公屋去解决住的需要, 政府可放宽申请门槛, 但同时要严厉定期做入息同资产审查, 一旦成为富户就交市值租金(其实所谓市值仍低市市值), 二黎一旦买左物业就要交返公屋出黎, 咁自然解决到居住的需求, 但唔冲击到物业市场投资o个部份 政府唔系大量兴建私人住宅去蒸发一班节衣缩食而上车的小业主资产财富 当你想进入物业的投资部份, 就再唔系人权, 唔系人人有份, 因为要有资金, 肯冒风险, 输左都唔可以怨天尤人
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59. 外国工作的港人 2011-09-23 09:56:36
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无壳蜗牛，别说：我哋普通市民日日为两餐一宿做到成只嘢咁，边得闲嗻？这种话，因为，就是给你生活在你认为是公平公正的社会，人也要努力向上，努力学习新知，才可以在你认为是公平公正的社会里生活得更公平。 我看到小 师妹的追求知识热心，马上回想起小时候我的同伴的追求知识热情。非常欣恵。愿年轻人都能有这态度，香港才有未来。
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60. 外国工作的港人 2011-09-23 10:12:41
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补充：当年努力追求知识的同伴，现在都不愁衣食了。 小 师妹，好好努力。
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61. MCC 2011-09-23 10:45:16
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已成为业主的喜欢买楼。未成为业主的也喜欢买楼。这说明楼市升跌应有的方向。1997年楼市高峰时，香港失业率是约为3%。 2003年香港楼市低潮时，失业率最高是8.5%. 2011年楼市又回到1997高峰，失业率是3.2%。美国楼市跌了差不多五年， 现在失业率是9.2%。不能怀疑楼价跟失业率的关系。也说明了就算人人想买楼，丢了工作就没办法，平也没用。所以渴望楼价跌的，要保持自己的劲争力，千万不要失业。 论香港失业率，你们既不记得在2003年唐英年接阿虫做财政司时说，在他有生之年香港失业率多不会回到以前的低位，可能现在股市寒风能令他睡得好一点。MCC
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62. 四方城外 2011-09-23 11:06:04
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多谢 "80后银行从业员", 多谢你有问必答, 无私分享, 教晓我地好多嘢, 我要重新评估 "80后" 了. 你令我对我地嘅未来有番地希望! 这里是一个正面, 客观而真诚分享的地方, 难得有汤博士倾囊相授成功的经验, 相比其他所谓 "专家", "评论员", 唔系无料到就系为交稿发嗡风! 你搵餐晏仔我地明, 但最惨系误人子弟, 害人不浅! 环看社会上嘈宣巴比的政客到一些不学无术的无壳蜗牛, 真系多得呢D "专家", "评论员" 唔少!! 每天上来睇几转, 学吓嘢, 已是我和好多朋友的指定动作, 再次多谢汤博士, 80后银行从业员!
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63. 无壳蜗牛 2011-09-23 11:36:06
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依家既社会太唔正常，连买生活必需品都搞到咁复杂。所谓金融市场，计我话好似赌场咁，其实你哋响度估紧大细，研究紧所谓赌场秘笈咋！咁多人热衷呢D嘢，浪费时间，对社会根本无益处！系时间嚟一场社会改革啦！
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64. 33H 2011-09-23 12:22:23
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月头买左个FLAT HK$4.8M. 今天律师楼要付大订. 出面风大雨大. 简直一步一惊心.
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65. 王先生 2011-09-23 12:28:20
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无壳蜗牛---你连利息与供楼关系都唔识或唔想知，系你嘅事，你想继续浪费时间青春系你嘅选择！
但呢度都有好多要上进嘅人，人哋系想点先可以系香港买倒楼！
然后努力学习及做啲积极嘢，例如勤储蓄、定目标、做预算！
而你就只系想消极地整瓜个楼市黎迁就你！真系自私有利！！
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66. 33H 2011-09-23 12:46:25
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80后银行从业员: 银行现在提出按揭是H+1.8, 上限是P-2.6. . 请问合理吗? 看完DR. TONG的文章及以上各位见解后. 要再同银行了解H/P的问题.
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67. Fireball 2011-09-23 12:59:09
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买左就冇计啦，如果系自住既都好既，你又有能力买4.8m既楼，都算可喜可贺。虽然我个人认为唔应该系依个时间买楼，因为下跌风险较高，但你有能力的话长线唔应该冇问题。
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68. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-23 13:08:51
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To: 33H 真的不想误导你, 我也不知是哪家银行提供最平息口, 你说的pricing我认为是不算差, 建议多问2,3家吧!
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69. 33H 2011-09-23 13:16:00
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80后: 收到, 谢谢. 我会在成交之前问多几家. 我为有拿著战战竞竞继续漏夜赶科埸*__*
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70. 33H 2011-09-23 13:25:05
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Fireball: 我都有同感不合时宜. 本想是个细路上中学前换楼.而家可能出租.
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71. 80后银行从业员 2011-09-23 13:50:22
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To: 33H 我也买了北角$9.2M一个三房套房, 换掉现在住的两房, 付了大订等成交, 大家同坐一条船. 反正自用, 要担心的是工作穏定而己....当然息口低是额外奬赏.
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72. 33H 2011-09-23 14:34:17
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80后: 果然后生可畏! 非一般的80后. 不用担心吧啦, 银行总比一般中小企稳定. 见到你以上分析理论, 亦是有实力之人. 旧未卖, 新的可出租. 正所谓条条大路通罗马. 用心做好自己工作.
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73. DWWY 2011-09-23 14:43:25
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74. 小市民 2011-09-23 18:03:45
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我信相反理论, 当所有人都看好, 你就要卖, 相反亦一样, 最近我做了和03年一样的决定, 就是入货, 再租出. 入了一间6M的新界西楼, 也是在等全世界个市好上来, 估计几年内就可以啦
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75. 33H 2011-09-23 18:28:42
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DWWY/小市民/80后: 2年后我地而家件货可以各有千秋. 小市民: 我而家住紧既都系03年买入.可算是同道中人. 新界西是否因为迟下有大桥通车概念?
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