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Real Estate Situation

China new policy pushing up the property price

 

Damon Ho

10th December 2022

The quarantine policy of mainland China has been changing. Does Christmas come early? More than ten provinces and cities have been releasing the stricken locking down policy. This sudden change leads to a normal live for the civilians. As expectation, the date of reopening the border between Mainland China and Hong Kong is not far away. In this scenario, Hong Kong will enjoy the benefit from this policy and the business environment becomes robustly again.

 

In the past two years, Hong Kong has been suffering the hard strike from negative effect of the covid-19 and the tide of emigration. The economy is almost broken down. In early of November of this year, the famous investors had the same viewpoint to the stock market, and they predicted the Hang Seng Index would plunge down thirty two percent from ten thousand four hundred and eighty to ten thousand points within months. As a result, the market reacted to the opposite direction and raised rapidly thirty percent to about nineteen thousand and four hundred points.

 

The Hang Seng index has bounced back to the level of twenty thousand points. Unfortunately, the property market is sluggish as before. In addition, one of the famous commentor continues to stress that the property price still have a strong momentum to fall. It is not unusual that the stronger negative comment about property price derives from a respected commentor, the sooner the property price will bottom out.

 

Strong greenback has been sustaining for a lengthy period. Until recently, British Pound and Canadian dollar touched the lowest exchange rate against the US dollar. Furthermore, US Federal Reserve’s ability to increase rates would be constrained by the effect of slowdown and dollar against other currencies. According to the government statics, there were about two hundred thousand emigrants had left Hong Kong and they sold out about eighty thousand residential units. It estimates that there are no more than forty thousand units which is ready for sale by the emigrants. Finally, the market will return to normal as the market has absorbed of these units.

 

The livelihood of mainland China returns to normal steadily and Hong Kong will follow the step. In the coming months, the quarantine policy will be ended step by step and it will bring the freedom to business travellers. The supply chain will also be reconstructed soon. Hopefully, an outstanding rebound will appear in the next February.

 
 
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1. 美股未跌完 2022-12-10 15:39:28
美國聯儲局今年以來連環加息,經濟衰退風險持續升溫,華爾街多位重量級人物齊警告美股未跌完!人稱「末日博士」的經濟學家魯比尼表示,假如經濟嚴重衰退,美股或再跌25%。「鱷王」達利奧、「女股神」伍德(Cathie Wood)亦警告,聯儲局或過度加息,加劇經濟衰退風險。

魯比尼估標指再瀉25%

魯比尼接受外媒訪問時表示,考慮到目前情況,美國經濟很難避免衰退。如果是情況嚴重的話,標指恐再下跌四分之一;即便是溫和的衰退,跌幅也會達到15%
2. Hope and worry as key policy scrapped 2022-12-10 20:35:28

Life is returning to normal on the streets of Beijing after big changes to China's  Covid policies.

IIn the past three years. Beijing has been adopting the controls - which included sending people into quarantine centers.

Locals have expressed hope and worry about the decision to abandon key policies that dominated their lives for almost three years.

3. Travel to mainland quarantine free 2022-12-10 23:53:57

Hongkongers may be able to travel to mainland quarantine-free before the Chinese New Year holidays next year, and will need only to undergo three days of medical surveillance by then, according to sources. 

According to media reports, Beijing is now mulling further easing border control measures after announcing the 10 Covid relaxations earlier. 

One of the reports cited two mainland government sources that Chinese authorities are studying a possible quarantine-free travel trial scheme to be launched before the Chinese New Year holiday. 

And the quota offered in the trial scheme will be sufficient to meet citizens’ huge homecoming demands during the festival. 

4. 港股強勢直撲2萬點 2022-12-11 00:00:42
市場續炒作內地放寬防疫措施,憧憬踏上重啟之路,加上美匯和美債息回軟,利好股市發展。恒指昨天急升450點或2.3%,全日收報19,900點,逼近20,000點關口且創今年8月以來新高,距離250天牛熊分界線(20,597點)尚有約700點。有分析認為,恒指於20,000點水平會出現短期波動,須待長線及主流資金買進,港股則有望繼續向上。
5. Pain and fever medication sold out 2022-12-11 21:25:21

The supply of pain and fever medication in local pharmacies has run short due to the increasing number of people buying recently.

Some pharmacies stated that the shortage could be due to the increasing demand for medicine caused by the epidemic in China.

The pharmacy staff in Sham Shui Po said the Panadol stock had run out even though they limited the amount per customer could buy and were waiting for restocking.

6. 香港明年GDP增長3.5% 2022-12-12 10:09:28

Hong Kong's economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2023, after an estimated contraction this year, the Bank of East Asia reported. 

The city’s economy shrunk by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, largely due to the persisting impact of the pandemic, rapidly tightening global monetary condition, rising geopolitical tensions, and weakening global demand.

7. HK GDP may be boosted to 7.6% 2022-12-12 19:42:19

Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore will likely be the biggest beneficiaries as China drops its Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, driving up demand for imports and overseas travel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Hong Kong could see an estimated 7.6% boost to its gross domestic product as exports and tourism income climbs, while Thailand’s GDP may get a lift of 2.9%, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note.

The impact on Singapore is smaller, at 1.2%, followed by 0.7% for Malaysia, they said.

9. Hong kong facing longer deficits 2022-12-13 10:06:16

Given the continued macroeconomic issues, Standard Chartered said Hong Kong is seen to still face fiscal deficits for longer to fiscal deficits of 5.5% in the economy in 2022, starting April 2022, and 3% in 2023.

The forecast on deficits are due to a hike in government spending and weaker growth trajectory. In 2023, there are expectations that external demand will stay weak,local normalisation will be gradual, and tight monetary conditions will require offsetting by loose fiscal policy.

10. Point to point mode for goods vehicle 2022-12-14 11:42:45

HKSAR ang Guandong governments have adjusted their cross-boundary goods vehicle (CBGV) transport arrangement to a point-to-point mode.

The adjustment allows drivers to pick up or deliver goods directly from or to the operation points starting 12 December.

The agreement has no imposed quota, and relevant drivers are only required to make prior appointments and declarations through the KuaJingAn system.

The Transport Department will continue to conduct COVID-19 rapid nucleic acid tests for CBGV drivers at the Hong Kong side of the boundary control points.

11. Four commercial projects built in Sheung Wan 2022-12-14 12:34:50

At least four commercial projects, involving about one million square feet in gross floor area, will be built in Sheung Wan, according to market intelligence.

One of the projects, jointly developed by Wing Tai (0369) and CSI Properties (0497), is located on Gage and Graham streets.

It will be developed into a comprehensive commercial property, offering a grade A-level office building, a hotel, retail shops and open public space and green belts, providing up to 433,500 square feet in gross floor area, Wing Tai says in its annual report.

12. 國泰11月份客運增6.5倍 2022-12-14 15:26:11
國泰公布11月客貨運數據,載客52.6萬人次,按年升652.1%,較疫情前2019年11月的水平下跌79.9%,首11個月增220.5%。11月載貨10.3萬公噸,按年減少23.8%,首11月減少12.6%。
13. Waiting game for home sales 2022-12-15 10:31:47

More than 11,000 completed apartments have yet to be put on sale, which is 3.4 times the 2,500 units at the end of last year and the highest level in recent years, reports Sing Tao Daily, sister publication of The Standard.

The unsold units are spread out over 23 projects.

About 90 percent, or more than 9,700 units, are small and medium-sized. And about 45 percent - more than 5,000 units - are in the Kai Tak new development area.

14. Hong Kong workers expect salary raise 2022-12-16 15:26:55

Around 1 in 4 of the respondents expected a minimum salary raise ranging between 10% and 15% when they change jobs in 2023, according to a report by Randstad Hong Kong.

In the 2023 Market Outlook & Salary Snapshot Report, Randstad said 18% of the respondents are expecting a raise of 15% to 20% when switching jobs.

Meanwhile, the survey also found that the local workforce has “realistic and reasonable” demands.”

Around 35% of the respondents expect a salary increase of 5% to 10% next year to manage the increase in the cost of living.

15. Rents dip as offices lie empty 2022-12-22 17:48:18

An office space in Bank of America Tower in Admiralty has been leased out at HK$220,000 per month, or HK$37 per square foot, which is 43 percent lower than the HK$65 per sq ft asking price of a year ago amid a dearth of tenants.

The 5,968-sq ft unit includes rooms four to seven as well as room 13 on the 19th floor. Its owner bought it in October 2020 for HK$145 million, which means the rental yield is 1.82 percent, much lower than the 2.5 percent market yield of the grade A office during the third quarter, according to data from the Rating and Valuation Department.

The flat was previously owned by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong and was purchased in 1996 for HK$54.61 million.