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加息已發出一號戒備訊號
 
湯文亮博士
紀惠集團行政總裁
2016年9月15日

  我一向以來,都認為美國是沒有能力加息,因為在環球金融海嘯之後,美國人欠債率相當高,如果維持在高息狀態,即是叫那些人去死,所以,美國要一個長而恆久的低息政策來維持經濟增長,就算要加息,都必定要改朝換代,由共和黨執行,如果由民主黨繼續執政,低息將會是一個永恆政策。

  在過去七、八年,不少高官,經濟學家,分析員都大聲疾呼叫小心加息,我一直都不同意他們的觀點,反而叫大家小心不加息,如果利息維持在低水平,物業資產價格就會被推高,唔買樓都唔緊要,千祈唔好將自住單位賣走,我知道有人聽我講,亦有人話我傻,不過,到了今天,當日話加息的人就話唔會加息,我又反其道而行,話加息已經發出了一號戒備訊號,如果按現時途徑移動,很快就會加息,但我又知道很多人不會相信,但如果他們留意美國總統競選發展,就知道是大有可能。

  我認為美國加息其中一個條件就是由共和黨候選人當選總統,本來,由特朗普代表共和黨參選,根本無勝算可言,但自從希拉里在911紀念活動中因病離去之後,大家都關心希拉里健康狀況,其實,希拉里的健康沒有問題,離去是一個棄選的訊號,現在特朗普在民調反超前,贏得大選的機會比以前任何時間都大得多,如果大家將問題改變為如果特朗普當選,加息的機會有幾大,就知道我說加息已經發出了一號戒備訊號並非危言聳聽,或者會有人問我最快會幾時加息,我會話九月,因為九月底美聯儲局議息,機會有幾大,一半,即是話有一半機會不加息。

 
 
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1. Tony lam 2016-09-15 11:14:08
美國佬D街邊老千手法、三隻pair牌呃盡全世界、都唔係賭五行、開莊開閒整到班財資達人腦痛、大家好專業咁幫美國佬揾理由、其實班猶太佬笑到失禁、你認真就輸嘞 ! 邊有路捉、亦根本唔使捉、袋中有銀、都開咗咁耐長莊、何妨嘆下 !

阿爺最麻煩 ! 一味有死力、睇習大大D眼神、朦朦地有時笑瞇瞇、有時正眼都唔望下、有銀好施為、大大殺起、邊個最醒 ?  菲佬是也  !
2. 亞Q 2016-09-15 11:29:42
加息?我就係唔信欠人錢的債仔會主動向債主提議加息!是否唔加多少息俾債主就借唔到錢先?
3. 估係冇用 2016-09-15 14:15:53
加不加也反正是亂世
經濟前景不樂觀 高槓桿投資的風險逾來逾大 等爆破



4. 息魔 2016-09-15 16:32:28
低利率及QE 已經証明無效
如果低息同QE持續 反而會引致另一波的世界經濟危機
所以各國已經開始討論收水及調升利率 或其他經濟方法

意味世界經濟短期內必然有一次大痛

5. 引刀一快 2016-09-15 17:19:55
不如下次貼成份大紀元喇。
6. 向引刀‧土著說不 2016-09-15 22:20:31
6樓,影響到你隻尾角食屎狗搵食呀?你成日話尾日點好點好,不如你移民尾日做二等公民啦...! 好多與你同背的人,當年選擇去美加澳,在唐人街洗大餅半工讀,畢業後有本樹搵到食咪留低囉。

但是你當年冇$卻偏偏死返去大陸讀屎片,與十四億同胞爭資源,當年有個香港身份証在內地也文也武,養成今天自視高內地人一等,其實就是老Q土!現在又話大陸人唔得,人文素質水平低,經濟唔掂有個大浪打埋黎,係呀,咪食月餅呀你,地溝油撈紅豆沙扮蓮容,加隻唔知隔咗幾多夜嘅鹹鴨蛋做架。又不肯認命,但又心理變態不平行,寧願做宅男,自以為年年月月日日在此唱,就可以改變你條發霉濕滯運。
7. 2047 2016-09-16 02:41:12
唔好開心住
 中央政府未表態2047 的土地處理
連香港政府都未確定 只係按大英法律及以前一貫方法解釋 係可以收地租解決 但地租係幾多是否要補地價 到時政府都要聽中央指示
8. 引刀一快 2016-09-16 04:25:34
哈哈哈哈哈,死囉,一旦唔剪貼網文,錯咁多字,好心你就學我咁返大陸讀下書喇,啊,唔得,你返大陸都唔會學到我,你都係繼續剪貼,繼續剪貼洗版喇。
10. 向引刀‧土著說不 2016-09-16 10:21:12
11. 阿Q 2016-09-16 11:30:05
一樓 tony lam,好鐘意你果句猶太佬笑到失禁,昨日,民主党的奥巴馬話怕大選後什麼,什麼所以拿拿淋宣佈380億美元支助以色列,時間剛剛好911後幾日,又咁啱一個行走江湖幾十年的希拉莉,暈一下全世界就掛住講佢,真係時間上又咁橋,同一時間又放鹰又放鸽,眼花花D錢去咗以色列猶太佬果到,美國借了全世界的錢,就那樣冇一大截。 

12. 阿Q 2016-09-16 11:41:22
仲有,耶倫是猶太人。真係咁啱得咁橋。
13. Tony lam 2016-09-16 12:09:17
唔明點解個個都話·當奴侵·係儍嘅、評論佢D財資界牛奶B同佢都唔同層次、殺戮商場中可以做不死鳥、幾多人有能力睇通佢路數、我單保佢跑出時、美國先有機會拆到個困局、會同中國開拖 ? ? ?咁諗嘅人要驗下智商、而家佢D招數、象牙塔中飲奶嘅人點會明、跟傳統架式玩悶到嘔、點跑得出 ! 招招腰到痛處、擂臺上觀眾要嘅係拳拳到肉KO先過癮、菲佬做咗示範、粗粗地先對地、9成幾支持度、呃㗎 !
14. 向飯民說不 2016-09-16 12:25:53
物價跌,bank of japan就好怕,漢堡減價,BOJ 頭疼;

Cheap Burgers Are Giving the Bank of Japan a Headache

Fast-food lunches in Japan are starting to get cheaper as consumers look to trim their dining expenses, a worrying sign for the central bank as it tries to bring about inflation.

Japan’s fast-food chains have lowered menu prices over the last 6 months, with McDonald’s Japan unit, Burger King Japan, and Yoshinoya Holdings Co. offering cheaper deals and lunchtime specials.

McDonald’s rolled out a new weekday lunchtime combo set earlier this month, offering a burger and a small-sized drink for 400 yen ($3.90). The new menu follows an all-day, 200 yen burger promotion that the company introduced last October, said company spokeswoman Kokoro Toyama.

“This was very popular with our customers. We’ve expanded options for weekday lunchtime to offer more cost-friendly, convenient menu options,” she said.

It’s hard to predict whether prices will continue to fall, but signs that a deflationary mindset is taking hold among consumers are likely to be considered by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and other policy board members when they meet next week to decide on monetary policy, said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co.

“Gasoline and other energy-related prices are falling, which makes it easier for the restaurant sector to lower their prices as well,” Miyazaki said. “I suspect the BOJ, going into the September meeting, would be thinking about how it can bring back consumers who are starting to develop a deflationary mindset.”

Consumer prices excluding fresh food, a closely followed measurement of price moves,fell 0.5 percent in July from a year earlier, its biggest decline since Kuroda took office in 2013. Kuroda is aiming to achieve 2 percent inflation by end-March 2018, a goal widely seen as unachievable despite the raft of easing measures he has taken.

“I think people would find these 400 yen lunchtime sets pretty helpful,” said Kazuomi Nishiki, a 42-year-old employee at a real estate company who ate at McDonald’s on Monday. “Stock prices may double but since individual income isn’t rising, people are attracted to cheaper options.”

Cutting Prices

Burger King in May introduced a 490 yen meal set complete with a burger, small fries and a drink. Beef bowl chain Yoshinoya in April brought back its pork bowl, priced 50 yen cheaper than its beef counterpart. Sushi restaurant chain Kappa Create Co. began a campaign in March to cut the price on its 108 yen sushi dishes to 97 yen on weekdays, according to Kyodo News.

Yoshinoya revived the cheaper pork bowls, originally served as a substitute during the mad cow scare in the early 2000s, based on customer demand, according to a company spokesperson who declined to be identified, citing company policy.

The price trimming extends to clothes, with Uniqlo-owner Fast Retailing Co. pledgingin May to offer “lowest possible price,” reversing an earlier attempt to hike prices that resulted in slumping sales.

McDonald’s Japan, whose sales bounced back in the April-June quarter after a series of food scandals, made headlines in the mid 1990’s when it rolled out a series of discount campaigns that triggered price cuts at other restaurant chains. Those price cuts came as Japan headed into deflation following the bursting of an economic bubble, something it has yet to fully recover from.

Deflationary pressures in the fast food industry will likely persist in the foreseeable future, said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management. Restaurants will thus face a period of cut throat competition.

“In the 1990’s when McDonald’s cut prices on their menus, it was a strategic move,” Akino said. “This time it’s for survival. These chains can’t survive unless they go along with the deflationary model.”



15. Tony lam 2016-09-16 15:32:50
戲背後編導先重要、美國總統衹係台前負責演出、民主共和兩黨就係背後嘅編導團隊、而佢地組成係以猶太資本家為主。

叙利亞如果講掂數座低傾計、最不安梗係隔離以色列、叙利亞自揪咁耐、唔係美國佬冇本事襟熄、根本係一路潑火唔想佢熄火、但最衰係普京睇通哂、玩到美國佬焗住熄火、費事普京有位入。
16. 向引刀‧土著說不 2016-09-16 19:44:40

14樓說得對,克林頓執政開始時也同樣玩貿易保護主義,保障基層工人飯碗作為競選口號,最後又唔係要繼續支持購買國貨!

=======

GDP增長要超4%!特朗普明確大幅減稅刺激經濟政策

/ 王維丹 20160916 03:11:01 27

繼雷根時代以來最大規模減稅方案後,特朗普又亮出了經濟計畫目標:4%。他自稱,美國史上可能還沒有那項經濟方針比他的還向增長傾斜。

當地時間本週四,特朗普在紐約參加商界與政界領袖論壇Economic Club時說,如果推行以他的經濟政策,美國的GDP增速將超過4%,是本世紀美國平均經濟增速的兩倍多。CNBC援引特朗普講話稱:我的計畫也許是美國史上最親增長的。

在特朗普講話前,當天他的競選團隊稱,其經濟政策將在十年內創造2500萬個就業崗位,還稱該團隊的經濟學家預計,美國年均GDP增速至少會因其政策達到3.5%

3.5%已經是美國近些年不俗的成績,上次增速達到這一水準還是在2000年,去年美國GDP增速約為2%(今年3