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現在英國樓是否抵買
 
湯文亮博士
紀惠集團行政總裁
2016年7月8日

  有老友在英國脫歐公投之後,見英鎊及樓價急跌,相比公投前有20%折讓,問我現在英國樓是否很抵買,我話唔知道,但如果在脫歐公投前以現金買了英國樓就非常唔抵,老友又話,有資深投資者與我的意見不同,佢都唔知道相信邊個,我話,邊個都唔好信,信自己,認為抵就買,唔抵就唔買,道理就是如此簡單,老友當然唔收貨,老實說,唔收貨我都沒有辦法,現在認為英國樓非常抵買的人大多數已經持有英國物業,現在英國樓滾水淥豬腸兩頭縮的情況下,比高峰時下跌20%,當然覺得非常抵買,香港樓價比高峰時只下跌了13-4%,不少人已經覺得很抵買,所以,有投資者覺得英國樓非常抵買亦是正常。

  一個城市的樓價上升抑或下跌,在某個程度上是那個城市的人口增加或者減少,倫敦在過去幾十年,人口不斷增加,新移居至倫敦的人不但有錢,而且有學識,不少跨國公司總部亦設在倫敦,令到樓價不斷上升,城市領域亦不斷擴大,新建築物亦不斷興建,有很多仍然在興建中,以滿足人口膨脹,但在脫歐公投後,情況立刻逆轉,專業人士已經開始將租用單位退回,有不少人已經離開英國,需求立刻減少,但興建中的大廈不能停止,供應暫時未能停止,如果這個情況繼續下去,倫敦甚至英國樓市絕不樂觀,這並不是減價就可以促銷,沒有足夠需求量,減價只會徒勞無功,所以,現在投資英國物業非明智決定,因為,英國樓跌勢還未正式開始,正常的情況是開始之後,樓價會一直下跌,直至大家認為英國樓市是無可救藥,不再考慮投資英國物業的時候,英國樓市才會返彈,總之,大家要謹記「莫買當頭跌」,這是前人痛苦的經驗。

 
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1. Should I Stay Or Should I Go ? 2016-07-08 11:24:00
上傳日期:2007年11月12日

This is the song "Should I Stay Or Should I Go" from The Clash with the lyrics :)

  • 類別 

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    • 標準 YouTube 授權
  • 音樂

2. 金融國轉型工業國 2016-07-08 12:48:28
最後變成德國一樣??

人均工資升 但係 房價跌.....
3. 智者 2016-07-08 15:28:53
日前黎生仲話會將數十憶投資在倫敦,叫人不要買香港樓,要買就要買倫敦摟。
博士説得對,叫人買者是因為自己當年已經放棄左香港樓押注倫敦,點知今次中左招,所以要揾人幫手接貨攞。
4. 人在天堂 錢在銀行 2016-07-08 15:54:48
其實都是一個機會, 估底很難, 但現在是跌過龍, 係就可入市?

不過, 之前升得太急, 唔知又係咪升過龍? 就算折讓20%入 , 可能都貴過基本供求平衡價位

不如, 好似都係聽博士話 "總之,大家要謹記「莫買當頭跌」", 穩妥些

買貴等到返家鄉, 自己都差不多返回天國

5. MMC 2016-07-08 18:31:39
博士好文!雖然我未必能做到寧買當頭起,但應該可以做到莫買當頭跌。再度感謝博士提點。
6. 小投資者 2016-07-08 19:30:23
怎看日本樓市?
7. 向犯民说不 2016-07-08 20:16:24
楼上,日本比中国人移民,楼市就有得救.

三陪的三支箭已经失败.又开始通缩,证明单纯量化宽松是解决不了人口老化带来的经济问题。

通缩means楼价下跌比上升机会高。
8. 人在江湖 身不由己 2016-07-09 09:31:16
日本樓市長遠不樂觀,當地人喜歡租樓
9. 被"通縮" 2016-07-09 14:13:48
美國長期逼升日元
搞到日本長期通縮

買 日本樓 咪即係......強逼性負資產......
10. 引刀一快 2016-07-09 16:08:43
To 4樓 兄台

買貴等到返家鄉, 自己都差不多返回天國

絕對係經典絕句。
11. Brexit vote roils London property market 2016-07-10 10:49:43
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-vote-roils-london-real-153750128.html

Brexit vote roils London property market

Associated PressBy DANICA KIRKA | Associated Press – Fri, Jul 8, 2016 17:26 BST

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  • Cranes stand silhouetted against the setting sun over London. AP Photo/Matt DunhamView Photo

    Cranes stand silhouetted against the setting sun over London. AP Photo/Matt Dunham

LONDON (AP) — Henry Pryor, who has helped people buy homes in London for more than 30 years, says only war would be a bigger threat to the housing market than the conditions it faces now after Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

In addition to the vote, the prime minister has resigned, the main opposition is in disarray, and there may be early Parliamentary elections. And Donald Trump may become U.S. president, something Pryor argues would add further uncertainty to the global economy.

"Any one of those five would have been enough to frighten the housing market," he says. "The only thing more dramatic than where we are now is if we were at war."

12. 望東樓 2016-07-11 20:30:25

When reality dawned, the reaction was swift. For one corner of the U.K. investment industry, it’s not clear where it will stop.

Funds investing in commercial property, among the most popular last year, had started to show vulnerability in the months before Britain’s June 23 referendum on leaving the European Union. Withdrawals accelerated as opinion polls turned in favor of the “Leave” campaign, driven by concerns that international companies might shut or scale back London operations even if financial markets and betting odds suggested that Brexit was unlikely.

At noon on Monday, just 11 days after the referendum result shocked the world, Standard Life Investments declared it had suspended its U.K. Real Estate fund as people tried to get their money back. By Thursday afternoon, seven funds together overseeing about 18 billion pounds ($23.4 billion) had shut the door to prevent unnerved customers forcing fire sales of offices, shopping malls and warehouses.

“As soon as Standard Life suspended their funds, it caused contagion,” said Jason Hollands, managing director at investment firm Tilney Bestinvest. “The key point here is no one really knows where U.K. property prices are going.”

Day of Reckoning

This story is based on interviews with people directly involved in the unfolding saga. They asked not to be identified because they were speaking about confidential proceedings.

Asset managers had already identified their soft underbelly. As Britain woke up to its shock decision to leave the EU, the board that oversees mutual funds at Henderson Group Plc gathered in London to discuss the potential fallout. Top of the agenda was real estate.

Within hours of the result on June 24, broker CBRE Group Inc. warned that prices would likely come under pressure. The pound sank to the lowest level in three weeks and sell orders began to mount. Before the referendum, about 25 billion pounds were in U.K. real-estate funds, less than 5 percent of the amount in stocks, but enough to cause concern among the asset managers.

Henderson swiftly cut the market value of its 3.9 billion-pound property fund by 4 percent to deter people from rushing for the exit. Redemptions were rippling through the industry. As wealth managers and fund of fund managers sought to reduce their clients’ exposure, Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc also began to cut the value of their funds to help manage the outflows and protect their remaining investors.

Fault Lines

“We don’t know how deep the fault lines run,” said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, which sells funds to individuals in Britain. “The mark-down in asset prices is really an educated guess, and it may not be borne out by real-world transactions, for better or worse.”

To protect from a sudden surge in withdrawals, funds have a proportion of their assets in cash, especially if the investments are in something that takes time to sell such as office blocks. Some property funds were more than 20 percent cash before the Brexit vote. Others, including the 4.4 billion-pound Property Portfolio at M&G Investments, had just 7.7 percent. It was too late for funds to raise more cash.

At the back of everyone’s mind from the regulator to the chief executives of the U.K.’s largest asset managers was the 2008 financial crisis. Real-estate funds were forced to freeze assets and contributed to a slump in property prices in Britain of more than 40 percent from their peak.

Daily Talks

Henderson’s board, which would normally meet quarterly, started to meet daily as outflows continued. The Association of Real Estate Funds, urged by the regulator, organized group conference calls with its key members to help gauge sentiment among investors. No emergency plans were discussed.

Then, news came from Edinburgh. Standard Life had reluctantly suspended its 2.9 billion-pound U.K. Real Estate fund. About 13 percent of the fund was liquid, but with no let-up in withdrawals its managers froze the assets on July 4 to preserve remaining cash and avoid having to sell holdings on the cheap. It gated a similar property fund during the 2008 crisis.

Standard Life didn’t have time to pick up the phone to inform its biggest clients why the decision was taken. Instead, it hurried out a statement, citing uncertainty in the U.K. commercial real-estate market following the referendum.

“The selling process for real estate can be lengthy,” the company said. “Unless this selling process is controlled, there is a risk that the fund manager will not achieve the best deal for investors in the fund, including those who intend to remain invested.”

Hourly Contact

Panic accelerated outflows. As the Financial Conduct Authority requested information from the funds sometimes hourly, its new chief, Andrew Bailey, told journalists it was time to look again at the design of illiquid funds sold to individuals. On Tuesday morning, Aviva Investors’ 1.8 billion-pound Property Trust was the second to succumb to redemptions, quickly followed by Henderson, M&G, Columbia Threadneedle and Canada Life.

That same day, the FCA held a meeting with the CEOs of about eight of the largest funds at its office in Canary Wharf in east London to discuss measures available to contain the fallout. The FCA declined to comment.

In a bid to avoid the same fate as other firms, Legal & General Group Plc and Kames Capital have cut the value of assets by as much as 10 to 15 percent. Aberdeen Asset Management has gone one step further and suspended its fund, which still has 500 million pounds of cash, until Monday, to give some investors time to reconsider their sell orders after they lowered their fund’s value by another 17 percent, following an earlier cut of 3.75 percent.

"What’s happening today is very similar to what we saw back” in 2008 in relation to redemptions, said Muna Abu-Habsa, a senior analyst and property sector specialist at Morningstar in London. "Unfortunately, we have not seen much changed by way of structure or regulation."

As the dust settles and comparisons are drawn with 2008, firms that froze assets have bought time to assess the damage from the referendum. Some have already engagedreal estate brokers to determine which assets could be sold as private equity firms and sovereign wealth funds circle, looking to snap up cheaper properties.

“We’re getting calls all over the world asking ‘would you like to sell us your assets?’,” Aberdeen CEO Martin Gilbert told Bloomberg Television. We may see “retail investors selling near the bottom and institutional investors from abroad coming in and taking advantage of the weak currency.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-11/the-week-brexit-got-real-for-investors-in-frozen-property-funds