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准買唔准賣,結果是紙上富貴
 
湯文亮博士
紀惠集團行政總裁
2015年8月20日

  有很多人,不知道他們有沒有打算買樓,見到面都話給我害死,二月份聽我講唔買樓,現在樓價愈來愈貴,又話信錯我,早知信林一鳴,只要我答一句,他們便收聲,我對他們說,就算在二月份他們買了樓,到現在升幅有6%,但這又如何,又唔能賣走,只不過是紙上富貴,但未來兩年半內,若果樓價下跌而遭受損失,連講走避不及都唔得,因為唔走得,所以,在近半年內買了二手細價樓的人以為賺了錢,其實是紙上富貴,還未買樓的人反而會是未來的勝利者兼白武士,所以,千祈唔好鬧我住,大家先睇多三個月再說。

  如果沒有SSD,我可以說已經輸了,但有了SSD,我還有機會反敗為勝,大家認為我為了自己,一定不會希望政府撤銷SSD,其實,我是非常讚成政府撤銷SSD,不過並不是現在,而是大約一年前,當時我亦有撰文說這是撤銷SSD的最佳時間,如果唔撤,以後都唔需要考慮,其實,現在並不是沒有供應,只不過有大量供應被SSD鎖死,就算政府唔撤銷,亦會陸陸續續到期,供應亦會增加,如果撤招,供應會立刻大幅增加,樓價就會急速下跌,我的三個月之約立刻贏了,不過,在近半年內買樓的人就慘了,所以,他們應該唔希望政府撤招,紙上富貴好過立刻輸錢。

  不過,還有人比他們更加不希望政府撤招,就是現在準備售樓的地產商,在未來兩年,都唔知有幾多個新樓單位供應,現在地產商售樓口號是「與同區二手樓同價」 ,倘若撤銷SSD,樓價急速下跌,現時口號就叫唔響,政府官員亦相當了解,現在撤銷SSD是一個一勝二負遊戲,勝利者反而會是政府銳意打擊的炒家,受損的是最近買了樓的用家及地產商,不過這不是政府不會撤銷SSD理由,我認為冇膽才是,連限奶令都唔敢撤,講什麼SSD。

 
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1. 凡人 2015-08-20 08:53:04
撤銷SSD,恐慌式下跌。
不撤銷SSD,陰乾式下跌。
長痛好,定短痛好?
2. 舊Fan 2015-08-20 09:43:19
湯博士可以給點意見舊fan嗎?2014尾的舊fan SSD未過,應該賣樓嗎?
3. 土斗 2015-08-20 09:59:13
現在取消ssd 都唔遲, 取消ssd 可加快樓市轉換, 即使升或跌都變回正常化,市場化. 其實講升講跌好無畏,買樓完全係一個主觀決定, 高價低價唔到價都有人買. 不論樓價高或低, 只要做足風險管理, 樓價升跌又如何. 依家唔應該再講樓市高低, 而係要再灌輸potential buyer買樓都係一項投資, 唔係sure win,
4. Alan Pepper 2015-08-20 10:43:18
To 3,

I think if SSD is lifted it will probably cause drastic drop in prices, as the economy is really undergoing an eminent recession. Only people who holds operational jobs don't know what's happening. Please ask any sales people how secure they think their job is.

5. 樓蟹 2015-08-20 11:04:47
SSD/BSD就是梁振英所謂適度有為的失敗例子。香港比佢攪歪晒。
6. Or sir 2015-08-20 11:16:48
I have left the discussion more than 10 months. I also stopped investing Hong Kong Property since last summer and concentrated my attention to overseas properties, especially Australia. I went there twice last Christmas and early this month. I went to see the properties I bought and discussed with the local residents such as taxi drivers, students, etc. I really find that Melbourne, Brisbane and Gold Coast are worth investing, as I just sold one in Sydney, which I bought one and half year ago, with profits and reinvest in other places. The currency is a very important element to affect your profits in investing overseas properties, but it can be controlled by yourself. In the past twelve years, I have learned a lots from Dr Tong and personal experience by selling, buying and renting. As a small investor, I think that properties investment is a good way to make  money. Sorry! I cannot write Chinese characters in this computer.
8. Desmond 2015-08-20 11:52:41
如樓市跌勢形成後,SSD會加速下跌速度,因為誰會想買一個會鎖三年而又正在下跌中的資產?
9. Alan Pepper 2015-08-20 11:54:41
To 6:

Welcome back, and hope you can share more experiences with us. 

Thank you
10. 奇奧貓咪 2015-08-20 12:09:44
Dear 6/F,
Due to family needs I start to learn about property investment since like 2 years ago. I travelled to several countries in Asia Pacific and start to build up the feeling to invest abroad, especially Brisbane, Melbourne or KL. I am glad to read what you posted above. Would you mind sharing more with me/us here your insights?
11. To 6/F Or Sir 2015-08-20 15:39:20
What is your view on apartments in Sydney? Is it now still worth investing.

12. to Or Sir 2015-08-20 15:43:38
Nice to see you coming back.
I also invested in the East Side of Melbourne.  However, Victoria government recently imposed new tax for overseas buyers and the mortgage for investment was also reduced.  There is also an over-supply in CBD and overall Australia took in less immigrant than the government expect.  Is it still worth to invest in Melbourne?  
13. Or sir 2015-08-20 16:19:24
It is an universal truth that buying property can be easily bought and easily sold; so, do not buy the one which gives you more than usual rental return but is hard to sell out, just like students' apartments overseas. Do buy the property which is both local residents and students' needs. Do not buy the high rise buildings which have a lot of units. Buy one near university or famous schools. It seems to be common sense. The average price for one bedroom (about 60msquare) unit with car space in Brisbane, Melbourne and Gold Coast is from $380000 to $420000 and the two bedrooms(90msquare) with car space is from $480000 to $600000. The location is very good. Most of the units provide the buyers with furniture such as stove, washing machine, etc.. Some serviced apartments even provide you with all furniture. It is very attractive. What the buyer does is to put down 10% deposit with about $1000 to $1500 solicitor fee, then wait for one to two years to do the settlement and the 10% will be kept in a trust account, which is supervised by the government and you will be given interest on this deposit when the settlement is done. Usually, the purchaser will borrow 60% to 80% from the banks in Hong Kong or local banks in Australia, which can be arranged by the property agency or the developers. The loan amount depends on your buying power. Buying seems to be easy because it only involves about HK$200000 to $300000 for the first installment. It depends on the currency rate.
In the past few years, I never discussed to buy properties in Australia because of the high and unreasonable currency (1A$=8.2HK$), and the properties in Hong Kong still had much chance to go up (for my own feelings). Now, the Australian currency is lower enough and the mortgage term is still "generous" for overseas buyers to buy properties in Melbourne, Brisbane and Gold Coast. If you buy this year (pay 10% deposit and no need to pay any money until settlement), what do you expect the Australian currency change next year? Which is a very tricky question. If you can control it, you can make more money. Up to here, I have some important things to do. Sorry about that.
14. CD ROM 2015-08-20 16:40:46
SSD cancel就立即樓價跌??? 起碼係呢1刻的話我應為唔會~~~~


15. 大熊 2015-08-20 17:57:07
博士的意思係反正現時全球各主要資產都相繼進入熊市,三個月後,所有資產包括香港樓市都不能幸免!
16. 待買樓 2015-08-20 17:58:16
取消ssd可以穩定樓價,否則跌落嚟,無人咁接貨。
17. 賣唔出 2015-08-20 18:03:53
絕對同意8樓的講法,我層馬鞍山三房由年頭放到而家都冇人問津,而家直頭死寂!唉…
18. Alan Pepper 2015-08-20 21:02:38
To 14,

It also depends on demographics, those areas with properties with high mortgage rates would drop more than those areas that are fully paid. We're heading into recession right now and things don't look too good. History repeats itself but each time with variations.
19. Or sir 2015-08-20 23:14:32
If the Australian dollars drop to $1=$5 next year when you have to do settlement, I suggest that the purchaser should do the mortgage with HK$ in Hong Kong. For example, the purchasing price of the property is $400000, your mortgage at that time will be A$320000(80%)=HK$160000or A$280000(70%)=HK$140000, and your rental income is about A$400 (per week). It may cover your mortgage payment (estimated 2.5% for HK$ mortgage). If the Australian keeps on dropping to $4, what do you think about the property at that time? I dare to say that the property price at that time must be higher than your purchasing price. The currency fluctuates always have a cycle. You can hold your property until the Australian dollars up to your expected level such as $1=HK$6 or more, then selling your property; your profits will be double.
Don't believe that the property price in Australia will drop or rise up crazily. The price must be up secretly , and what I want to earn is the fluctuation of Australian dollars. As HK$ income earner, you have right to shift your mortgage currency. I did it 15 years ago and earned both the rising of property price and the rising of Australian currency. You may ask me what happen if the Australian dollars rise next year such as $1=HK$7. Then, you can have two choices. First, have your mortgage with Australian dollars with HK banks or local Australian banks. If the currency keeps on going up to $7.5 or $8. Then I advise you should sell your property to make profits even though the property price just rises up to 5%. Second, you may wait until the Australian dollars drop down to your expected level such as $5.5, then shift it to HK$ mortgage, and wait for rising up cycle of Australian dollars and sell it. You can engage in property and currency margin games; however, It is you not the bank can control it. It seems to be complicated, but it works. In addition, I have given up my investment in Sydney because of the property price and the difficulty in applying mortgage there. The government data shows that more than 10,000 residents move to Brisbane from Sydney each year. Melbourne is still good even though it imposed 3% more stamp duty on overseas buyer in July because of its city planning and the best suitable place for people to reside. For Brisbane Gold Coast, I think that they are going to catch up Sydney and Melbourne. What I consider is the up and down of Australian currency not the property price (which is always stable) in Australia. Thank you for seeing my sharing. Goodnight!
20. Or sir 2015-08-20 23:20:43
East side of Melbourne is good too because there are many good schools. I have one in South Yarra.
21. 舍神 2015-08-21 01:52:53
ssd取消......我第一個沽! 
呢幾年,樓有近50%升幅, take profit的誘因太大!
咁多壞消息,誰又知不會見頂!
如不是ssd鎖住而個市未爆先靜觀其變!
樓...如下跌.... 好可能好多人已寧願比ssd,也要sell!
最緊要lock住profit! 減一點不是問題!

股市上.....我呢d, 叫做 bullish bear! ^^
22. 奇奧貓咪 2015-08-21 10:26:10
Thanks Or Sir for the detailed sharing..
very practical.. better than those "professional" advices from property agencie's bosses
23. 引刀一快 2015-08-23 08:52:06
其實SSD撤与不撤,未必一定要一刀切,局部減SSD比例,既可以試水,又可以降低撤招嘅衝擊。